Mapeando a influência estrutural: um estudo sobre a projeção sino-americana nas redes globais de produção

Abstract

What is the structural position of the United States and China regarding the propagation of incentives in global production networks? The present study analyzes the role of these countries in this relational-productive framework using an approach that combines input-output analysis, complex networks, and international political economy. Using OECD’s Inter-Country Input-Output tables (ICIO) (1995–2022), directed and weighted networks were constructed based on the Leontief and Ghosh inverse matrices; fundamental relationships were extracted using the disparity filter method, and the structural influence of sectors within the network was measured by PageRank centrality. The results indicate that the distribution of structural power is profoundly asymmetric among participants in global production: less than 2% of productive relationships account for more than 80% of the networks' total weight. Regarding Sino-American competition, on average, although the United States leads in both networks, especially on the supply side (concentrated in advanced, high-value-added services); China demonstrates broad influence on the demand side, with a widely distributed presence in basic industries and input-intensive manufacturing. The U.S. presence, while qualitatively significant, proves structurally fragile as it depends on a limited set of economic nodes. China’s structural power in the Backward network has been steady since 2011; in the Forward network, the Chinese economy achieved performance comparable to that of the United States in 2020, demonstrating a progressive trajectory of structural influence. Additionally, on the demand side, findings suggest that the recent foreign policies of both countries aim to strengthen their most influential sectors: China through the Belt and Road Initiative, which boosts the construction sector; the United States through military interventions and military support for allies, which stimulate the U.S. industrial-military complex.