Os padrões de gestão de riscos de desastres ambientais hidrológicos X a execução orçamentária da locação de máquinas para prevenção em João Pessoa (2022-2025): uma análise sob ótica da NBR ISO 31000:2018, COSO ERM 2017 e PNPDEC

Abstract

The occurrence of hydrological environmental disasters in urban areas poses complex challenges to public administration, requiring a transition from reactive response models to proactive risk governance. The general objective of this study was to analyze how the budget execution for leasing machinery for river and stream cleaning in João Pessoa, from 2022 to 2025, complies with the risk management standards established by NBR ISO 31000:2018, COSO ERM 2017, and Federal Law No. 12,608/2012 (National Protection and Civil Defense Policy). Methodologically, this research is characterized as a descriptive case study with a mixed-methods approach. It utilizes raw budget data extracted from the municipal Transparency Portal to calculate the Budget Execution Index (BEI); maps the quadrimestral seasonality of expenditures over the analyzed four-year period; and develops a Strategic Compliance Matrix aligned with risk management standards. The results indicate an average BEI of 65% over the four-year period, highlighting a disparity between budget authorization and the financial settlement capacity of the executing agency. A specific concentration of emergency spending was observed in 2023, driven by atypical rainfall events, whereas the 2024–2025 biennium marked a transition toward continuous, preventive resource allocation through permanent service contracts. It is concluded that the effectiveness of hydrological environmental disaster mitigation policies requires constant convergence among formal budget forecasting, cash flow timeliness, and the operational capacity of the municipal public administration.