A geopolítica das cadeias globais de suprimentos energéticos nos governos Trump sob a ótica do realismo ofensivo

Abstract

This study analyzes the instrumentalization of the global supply chains of oil and natural gas by the United States during the Trump I (2017–2021) and Trump II (2025–present) administrations, through the lens of John J. Mearsheimer's Offensive Realism. Grounded in the premise that the anarchy of the international system compels states to the continuous maximization of relative power, the study treats energy as a contemporary extension of wealth and resources as the material base of power, framing Venezuela, Iran, and Europe as three empirical fronts that illustrate, respectively, movements of capture, interdiction, and substitution of energy flows. Through a qualitative and exploratory approach, based on the documentary analysis of official primary sources (the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy, executive orders, and institutional reports from bodies such as the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the International Energy Agency (IEA), and the Council of the European Union) and on the comparison of the three case studies, the research examines how the sanctions on Petróleos de Venezuela S.A. (PDVSA) and the capture of the Venezuelan oil sector, the maximum-pressure policy toward Iran and the chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, and the substitution of the Russia–Europe axis by U.S. LNG together compose a single strategy of energy dominance. The results show that, although directed at distinct regional rivals and partners, this strategy converges systematically on China as the buyer of last resort for the sanctioned energy flows, revealing an indirect yet consistent mechanism for containing the principal systemic rival of the United States. It is concluded that the doctrine of energy dominance, formalized in the official strategic documents of both Trump terms, operates as a coherent vector for maximizing U.S. relative power, consolidating regional hegemony in the Western Hemisphere, and systemically containing China's rise, confirming the hypothesis that the three fronts analyzed are not isolated episodes but articulated expressions of a single state strategy.