Os efeitos da transferência de renda e da política de cotas no mercado de trabalho durante a COVID-19

Abstract

This dissertation examines, in three empirical chapters, how cash transfer programs (CTPs) and affirmative action policies affected the labor market and socioeconomic vulnerability during the COVID-19 pandemic. To carry out these analyses, three matching methods were employed: Propensity Score Matching (PSM), Mahalanobis Distance Matching (MDM), and entropy balancing. The first chapter evaluates the impact of the Emergency Aid Program (Programa Auxílio Emergencial – PAE) on the Brazilian labor market. The results suggest that the PAE generated heterogeneous effects on the labor market. Negative effects are observed on formal employment, while positive effects are found in the informal sector, indicating a process of occupational reallocation, possibly associated with the incentives embedded in the program’s targeting rules. Negative effects on labor supply are also identified, consistent with the presence of an income effect. In addition, consistent evidence was found of labor market scarring effects and stigma effects, as beneficiaries showed a higher probability of searching for work and a lower probability of reporting unwillingness to work. The second chapter evaluates the effects of the Asignación Familiar – Plan de Equidad (AFAM-PE) on the Uruguayan labor market. In contrast to the results of the first chapter, the estimates indicate that AFAM-PE produced modest effects on the labor market. No robust evidence was found of occupational reallocation, income effects, scarring effects, or stigma effects among program beneficiaries. The third chapter evaluates the effects of the quota policy of the Federal University of Paraíba (UFPB) on the probability of demanding Emergency Aid during the COVID-19 pandemic. The evidence indicates the absence of statistically significant effects of the quota policy on the probability of demanding Emergency Aid. Considering the sample limitations of the study, these results suggest that, after completing higher education, quota and non-quota graduates displayed similar patterns of economic vulnerability, at least with regard to the need for emergency support. Taken together, this dissertation shows that social protection policies may operate in complementary ways. While cash transfer programs respond directly to short-term needs and generate relevant, though ambiguous, effects on the labor market, inclusive educational policies tend to operate primarily over longer horizons, helping to reduce structural inequalities and increasing the capacity of social groups to cope with adverse economic shocks without having to rely on assistance mechanisms.