Comportamento dinâmico do desemprego brasileiro: não linearidade, instituições e informalidade

Abstract

This study investigates unemployment dynamics behavior in Brazil focusing in its level of persistence. For this purpose, fractional integration models and a persistence change test are used. The results indicate that the unemployment rate have two different levels of persistence. The first one is a nonstationary, whereas the second one is a nonstationary but mean-reverting. From a nonlinear model with multiple regimes proposed by Faria and Leon-Ledesma (2008), an empirical approach was applied using a SETAR model, which allowed explaining the persistence shift by labor market institutions changes introduced by the 1988 Constitution. Based on these findings, was possible to relate the results with those obtained by Figueiredo (2010) and Estevão and Carvalho Filho (2012). It was concluded that there are evidences of a relationship between the level of persistence and institutions, but also that the upward trend in informality in the 1990s, by promote a reduction of market rigidities, may explain the persistence decrease.