Avaliação das variações climáticas sobre a distribuição espacial da tuberculose no município de João Pessoa-PB

Abstract

The research aimed to propose a model of decision making that can assist managers in health to take actions for tuberculosis control in João Pessoa. The study was quantitative, ecological, exploratory and cross-sectional, using secondary data from cases of tuberculosis and climate of João Pessoa during the period of 2000-2012. The spatial and spatio-temporal analysis was performed by creating maps of relative risk, spatial and space-time scan. The Spearman correlation was used to measure the degree of association between the incidence rate of tuberculosis and climate variables. The spatial and spatio-temporal analysis was performed by creating maps of relative risk, spatial and space-time scan. The Spearman correlation was used to measure the degree of association between the incidence rate of tuberculosis and climate variables. With the results obtained, a decision model based on fuzzy logic was developed. No trend or seasonality in incidence rates was observed. The spatial analysis detected spatial clusters of high risk in the northern region in almost all months, indicating the existence of a geographical barrier in the region. In spatio-temporal analysis, was detected 12 significant spatio-temporal clusters. With the correlation analysis, found that climatic variables did not exert influence on tuberculosis. The decision model based on fuzzy logic was able to classify accurately the degree of priority for tuberculosis in João Pessoa, supporting health managers to direct their actions to control tuberculosis according to the actual situation of the municipality, in addition the model was constructed to also be used for other places and time periods.