Termos de troca e seus efeitos sobre o bem-estar dos brasileiros: uma análise a partir de indicadores

Abstract

Variations in the terms of trade have several economic effects, causing positive or negative influences on the well-being of a country. The objective of the present study was to verify how variations in the terms of trade affect the well-being of Brazilians. The analysis was performed using the Gross National Income, a macroeconomic aggregate that best measures the welfare due to its better benchmarking of purchasing power and its distinction with the real Gross Domestic Product. The final consumption was then used as a measure of economic well-being in the perspective of the preference revealed through the Laspeyres and Paasche index numbers methodology and its relation to the terms of trade. In periods of low variation in the terms of trade, 1996 to 2006, trade gains are negative and price and quantity indices reveal a scenario of uncertainty for the determination of well-being. From 2007 to 2016, there are significant changes in terms of exchange variation, gains in trade show positive values, and price and quantity indices result in a condition of improvement in the well-being of Brazilians.