Dívida pública mobiliária e o mercado de títulos públicos no Brasil: uma análise pelo modelo de sustentabilidade

Abstract

The objective of this work is to investigate, through a sustainability model, the Internal Federal Domestic Public Debt (FDPDi) between 2002 and 2017. The goal is to analyze the characteristics and behavior of federal bonds in the public securities to the individual; the Tesouro DIreto. The Public Debt Sustainability Model was used to base the work theoretically, justifying that public indebtedness is essential for credible policies and that it must be sustainable, in other words, that the government's budget constraint can cover its future expenses. Therefore, the composition of the FDPDi and the securities market is examined, characterizing with its specifications and calculation statements. In order to estimate parameters and to make inference on subject, was used the econometric model of Autoregressive Vectors (VAR). All variables were deflated by the IPCA, with monthly frequency and based on data from the FDPDi, Nominal Interest Payment accumulated in 12 months and the Primary Result accumulated in 12 months. The results showed that the DPMFi has an unsustainable trajectory from 2014, so to improve its profile, the government needs strong primary surpluses in the coming years or an economic growth rate higher than the interest rate paid on the amount of debt.