Previsão de risco das gestões municipais: um modelo de resposta qualitativa para subsidiar as auditorias do Tribunal de Contas do Estado da Paraíba

Abstract

Corruption has been the subject of several theoretical and empirical studies in recent years, withaconsensusthatitcausesaseriesofdistortionsforthepublicsector.Theliteratureon the subject points out that corrupt behavior can alter the composition of public spending in favor of certain areas where the opportunities and returns of the diversion of public resourcesaregreater.Throughtheuseofthelogisticregressiontechniqueandusingdataon the assessment of municipal accounts in Paraíba by the Audit Court of Paraíba, this paper aims to build a risk prediction model based on public expenditures by public managers. The results using data on municipal public spending as explanatory variables show that, in fact, managers who spend more on certain components of public spending have a greater probability of obtaining a contrary opinion issued by the State Audit Court in the analysis of their accounts. Despite some limitations, the proposed model was shown to have a good predictive power when pointing to higher risk management.Variables such as the municipality, gender and declared assets of the manager were also relevant to explain problematic management, including those in which losses were found in public coffers.