Indústria automotiva brasileira: uma análise da produção no período de 1990 a 2015 a partir do modelo de insumo-produto

Abstract

The present work aims to analyze the production of the Brazilian automotive industry from 1990 to 2015 from the input-output model, in order to measure how strong the sector is in the national economy and its capacity to generate income. For this, relevant information on the automotive industry is presented, as well as the theoretical basis that supports the chosen analysis model, as well as the presentation of the methods that include the measurement of the multipliers, generators and Rasmussen/Hirschman index that will be applied in the inputoutput matrices of the Brazilian economy after being duly worked out, based on the Leontief model. In the results, the fall of the production multipliers in 1995 and 2000 reflects the moment of the commercial opening and productive restructuring by which the Brazilian economy passed. On the other hand, the increase in 2005 and 2010 and the fall of 2015 reflect the expansionary cycle of the national economy of the period and the crisis that devastated the country in the last year analyzed. Thus, the results of the analysis of production multipliers, generators of profits, wages and investments, together with explanations of the behavior of these results over the period analyzed, quantify the relevance of the national automotive industry, and confirm their importance in the Brazilian economy, as reflected in the Rasmussen/Hirschman Link Index for Back, which led to the conclusion that the automotive industry's capacity for linkage was above average for the whole period analyzed.