Sentimento do investidor: índice de confiança do empresário e a sua relação com a taxa de retorno das ações BM&FBOVESPA

Abstract

The behavioral finance appears with the classical finance fragility to explain recurring intrinsic phenomena of the human fact in relations to the investments. In traditional theories there is no room to consider the effect of the investor sentiment (on the shares pricing. it assumes that in competitive markets prevails the rational investor. In the behavioral finance approach, there is a possibillity that investor sentiment (may affect the market balance. This research aims to investigate how the investor sentiment (affects the expected return rate of financial assets negotiated on the São Paulo Stock Exchange. Taking, having the investor sentiment represented by the Industrial Entrepeneur Confidence Index and the market value of shares obtained with the Ibovespa index. investor sentiment ( the Industrial Manager Index and the market value of actions obtain with IBOVESPA index. The temporal series of January 2010 and September 2016 of both indexes were colletected and observed, verifying trought a linear regression the relation betweent variables. The minimum ordinary square method was applied, obtaining the result that the Confidence Index of Industrial Manager is a relevat factor on the future return rate at BOVESPA actions, correlation was found between them. The relation between investor sentiment (and return rate of actions must be investigated deeply with the components that build the market sentiment index. observing other variables of this combination.