Modelagem matemática dos efeitos da vacinação contra a Covid-19 no Brasil

Abstract

The coronavirus pandemic or COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease) was declared in the beginning of 2020 changing completely the way we interact with each other. The scenery demanded that we practice social distancing, having the least direct contact possible among the human being. The disease was something new to the world and consequently to science and this prompted the relentless search for an effective vaccine to contain the spread of the virus. Therefore many studies was accomplished about the global situation, among them, the epidemiologic modeling that would explain the dynamic of COVID-19 and its complexities, for that reason, the mathematical modeling has been and continues to be present to describe real situations and provide important information to assist in the management of diseases. Utilizing this , the present study aims to mathematically model the dynamics of COVID-19, taking into account vaccinated individuals, in order to analyze the disease’s behavior as people receive the vaccine. A modification was accomplished in the SIR model, where we included the compartments of individuals vaccinated with one dose, two doses, and three doses of vaccine; we take into account the influence of some parameters such as transmission rate, recovery rate, reinfection rate, and vaccination rate. The dynamic of the population’s behavior was represented by numerical simulations, utilizing the software Maple, for different scenarios of vaccination.