Mortalidade por Covid-19: impacto sobre as pensões por morte em um RPPS

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic, an acute respiratory infection caused by the Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 virus, was detected in December 2019 after the notification of an outbreak in Wuhan, China. Several studies set out to analyze the impact of deaths caused by the pandemic in various countries, estimating the decline in life expectancy at birth for various populations. As mortality is an event that can be covered, it is necessary for actuarial studies to understand the time until the death of participants, making it possible to carry out calculations that estimate the impacts of mortality on the obligations of the pension plan. Thus, this work aimed to analyze the impacts of mortality caused by the Covid-19 pandemic on the Mathematical Provision of the death pension benefit for retirees in a pension plan offered by an RPPS. To this end, based on the Multiple Decrement model, mortality tables were constructed, including (Scenario 1) and excluding deaths due to Covid-19 (Scenario 2), for subsequent actuarial calculations. Then, the death probabilities obtained were applied to a database referring to 504 inactive employees of an RPPS, and the results on the Present Value of Future Benefits (VPBF) and the Mathematical Provision (PM) of the death pension benefit in the period that constitutes the pandemic (2020, 2021 and 2022). Among the main results obtained, it was possible to verify that, when eliminating Covid-19 as a cause of death, the probability of death is lower than when this is considered, in all the years analyzed. Keeping other assumptions constant and applying mortality experiences to the RPPS benefit plan, with the exception of the year 2022, commitments relating to death pensions were reduced in Scenario 2, compared to Scenario 1. The change in mortality tables in scenarios in which Covid-19 does not act as a cause of death reduced the VPBF and PM relating to pension commitments, on average, by 1.72% (from 2020 to 2021) and by 1.75% (from 2021 to 2022). Furthermore, even if the variation between VPBF and PM is very close, the impact is slightly greater on provisions. Finally, the results highlight the importance of considering the impact caused by the pandemic not only on the mortality structure, but also on specific areas that make use of premises based on such behavior, since the change in just one premise had an impact on the whole of the result.