Regimes fiscais brasileiros: um estudo sobre impactos nos gastos públicos, investimentos e crescimento econômico no período 2002 a 2018

Abstract

The general objective of this study is to verify, based on the observation of the behavior of macroeconomic indicators, how the fiscal regimes adopted by Brazil between 2002 and 2018 stimulated the growth of public spending and the trajectory of public debt, and to conclude whether there was a balance between the search for fiscal austerity and the stimulus to economic growth. Focusing on a time frame that encompasses three governments, the data presented indicate that during the period the Brazilian government experienced two distinct phases in terms of fiscal policy and primary results. Between 2002 and 2013, there was a predominance of primary surpluses and from 2014 onwards there was a significant deterioration in fiscal results, with the beginning of a trajectory of primary deficits that worsened in the following years, reaching its negative bottom in 2016, with a deficit of R$ 159.4 billion. In general, the data provide a comprehensive view contributing to the discussion on the need for a balance between austerity and investment to ensure sustainable development.