Análise da rentabilidade dos planos previdenciários em entidades fechadas de previdência complementar no Brasil: um estudo comparativo (2015-2023)

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the factors that explain the profitability of pension plans offered by Closed Private Pension Entities (EFPCs) in Brazil between 2015 and 2023. For this purpose, grouped data for the entire sector by plan type (Defined Benefit, Defined Contribution, and Variable Contribution) were used, based on a convenience sample selected according to the availability of data from actuarial and financial statements. The research was conducted through three main types of analysis: descriptive, correlation, and panel data regression. The descriptive results indicated that, on average, the plans showed profitability above the basic interest rate (Selic), with emphasis on Defined Benefit plans, which demonstrated greater stability and performance over time. The correlation analysis reinforced the perception that profitability is more closely linked to investment allocation strategies than to the structural characteristics of the plans. It showed weak relationships between actuarial variables and profitability, suggesting that these factors do not robustly explain the observed outcomes. The panel regression models revealed that variables related to asset allocation such as fixed income, variable income, real estate, and foreign investments were the most influential on plan profitability. Conversely, actuarial variables did not show statistically significant relevance in the proposed models. Therefore, this study contributes to the academic field by deepening the understanding of pension fund performance and to the market by providing insights for more assertive decision-making in pension portfolio management. Ultimately, the findings highlight that a sound investment strategy remains the key to ensuring the sustainability and financial balance of private pension plans in the long term.