Análise da substituição do transporte público e da bicicleta pelo ridesourcing a partir do contexto pós-pandêmico da cidade de João Pessoa

Abstract

During the pandemic, many people changed their travel habits due to health concerns and mobility restrictions. This resulted in changes in travel purposes, the number of trips made, and transportation mode choices. Regarding modal choice, it was found that the Covid-19 pandemic led to a reduction in the use of shared transportation modes, such as ridesourcing and public transportation (PT), along with a preference for private vehicles and active modes, such as cycling. Despite the reduction in the use of ridesourcing, some people began to use it as an alternative to PT and cycling due to perceived higher health risks in PT travel and unwillingness to cycle. Given this scenario, there is a gap in understanding how the behavioral changes observed during the pandemic might persist in the long term and affect the demand for public transportation and cycling in the post-pandemic period. Therefore, this study seeks to compare the habits developed during the pandemic with those practiced after its end, as well as analyze the factors contributing to the substitution of more sustainable transportation modes, such as cycling and PT, with ridesourcing in the post-pandemic context. To achieve these objectives, Revealed Preference (RP) and Stated Preference (SP) surveys were conducted through questionnaires administered in person to cyclists and public transportation users in the city of João Pessoa. The experimental design for the composition of SP scenarios was developed using the Bayesian Efficient Design technique. With the collected data, it was possible to conduct a comparative analysis of mobility behavior during and after the pandemic, using McNemar and McNemar-Bowker hypothesis tests. Additionally, two Multinomial Logit models were estimated to identify the factors contributing to the substitution of public transportation and cycling with ridesourcing in the post-pandemic period. The results demonstrate significant changes between mobility patterns observed during and after the pandemic, with shifts in travel purposes, the most used transportation mode, and ridesourcing usage. Furthermore, it was found that the substitution effect of ridesourcing is predominant over PT, especially in the post-pandemic period, and that factors such as price, travel time, PT comfort (related to crowding), and cycling infrastructure are relevant for cyclists and PT users to substitute these modes with ridesourcing.