Análise de viabilidade econômica da utilização de energia fotovoltaica no Brasil: cenários por região

Abstract

Brazil is experiencing a period of several uncertainties for new investments and an increasing use of renewable energy, mainly wind and solar photovoltaic energy. Given this context, the objective is to assess the economic viability of using photovoltaic energy systems with three levels of consumption profiles in the five geographic regions of the country, comparing scenarios and considering the uncertainties involved in the process through a Monte Carlo simulation (SMC ). The applied method uses as criteria the positive Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) greater than the Minimum Attractiveness Rate (TMA) desired by investors and the time of return on investment (payback). For this purpose, a survey of the solar irradiation rate will be made through the NASA website, panel inclination characteristics and solar orientation according to the manufacturers' considerations, and losses of system efficiency, considered through the PVSyst® software, and thus, define the value investment and cash flow characteristics over the life of the projects. In the end, the main uncertainty is considered, the binomial tariff, which would be a charging modality that, for the micro-generators and mini-generators in distributed generation, would be charged with reference to fixed transmission and distribution costs corresponding to these generation units. . The binomial tariff, proposed by ANEEL in 2019 did not go to the Congress as determined by the President of the Republic, but it still has defenders and may be discussed again in the future, which may have a strong impact on the viability of photovoltaic systems and becomes a factor to discourage investment in distributed generation in Brazil. The differential of this work is to present a study with stochastic variables, which include uncertainties involved, and according to the research premises, considering the IRR criterion> 10%, it is concluded that solar energy in the five cities observed, being applied the systems dimensioning projects used in this study, the simulations are feasible in more than 93.52% of the cases, considering the worst simulated scenario, which demonstrates that photovoltaic solar energy is a very attractive investment in Brazil, even considering changes in the taxation of the energy consumed by the concessionaire during non-production times.