Análise da fecundidade adolescente no semiárido brasileiro por regressão logística binária

Abstract

Adolescent fertility is a significant demographic phenomenon for understanding social and territorial inequalities in Brazil and constitutes one of the indicators of SDG 3 of the 2030 Agenda. Its implications go beyond reproductive aspects, impacting maternal and child health, educational trajectories, access to the labor market, and the perpetuation of intergenerational poverty, especially in vulnerable contexts. Despite the national trend of declining fertility rates, this reduction has not occurred uniformly across age groups and regions. This study aimed to analyze the sociodemographic factors associated with fertility levels among adolescents aged 15 to 19 in Brazil’s Semi-Arid region in 2023. A quantitative approach was adopted using microdata from SINASC (2019–2023) and population estimates from IBGE, covering 1,473 municipalities. The methodology involved four main steps: data processing, assessment of data quality, analysis of adolescent fertility trends, and application of a Binary Logistic Regression model. The dependent variable was the adolescent-specific fertility rate (ASFR), coded as 1 for municipalities below the national average (0.0391) and 0 otherwise. Explanatory variables included maternal education, marital status, number of previous children, race/skin color, and territorial typology. Results indicated that the presence of adolescents with lower secondary education increased the likelihood of a municipality having an ASFR below the national average by 3.75%. Additionally, municipalities classified as adjacent rural, adjacent intermediate, and remote rural areas showed a higher probability of low adolescent fertility compared to urban areas, suggesting that factors such as migration, cultural changes, or possible underreporting may have influenced these outcomes, particularly in remote rural areas. The presence of married adolescents increased the likelihood by only 1.7%, indicating that while marriage remains associated with fertility, its effect was limited. Variables such as race/skin color and previous childbirths showed no statistically significant association, reflecting the complexity of sociodemographic interactions with adolescent fertility in the Semi-Arid region. The model demonstrated good performance, with an AUC of approximately 73%, sensitivity of 54.2%, and specificity of 80.8%, supporting its applicability. It is concluded that, although adolescent fertility is declining in the Brazil’s Semi-Arid, territorial disparities persist and require context-sensitive and targeted public policies.