Impacto da aplicação dos critérios mínimos para seleção de tábuas de mortalidade sobre as provisões matemáticas dos regimes próprios de previdência social

Abstract

The Regime Próprio de Previdência Social (RPPS) — the public sector pension system in Brazil — is responsible for providing post-employment benefits to permanent civil servants. In this context, Ordinance MTP No. 1,467/2022 establishes parameters and guidelines for these organizations. Its Article 36 sets a minimum criterion for the selection of mortality tables, requiring that the adopted table present, at the mean age of the insured population, a life expectancy equal to or greater than that of the reference table (the annual IBGE table, extrapolated by sex). This study investigates whether the mortality table selection criterion established by Article 36 is sufficient to ensure that the mathematical provision calculated with the adopted table is equal to or greater than that obtained with the reference table. To this end, simulations were conducted for four distinct age profiles — young, balanced, old, and bimodal — each comprising 100,000 insured individuals of each gender, under a simplified scenario with a single old-age retirement benefit, uniform initial salary, and no decrements due to disability or withdrawal. Mathematical provisions were calculated using the INE, CUP, and PNI actuarial cost methods, applying the table selection criterion in accordance with the regulatory framework of Article 36. The results revealed inconsistencies across all age profiles, with higher incidence in younger populations, particularly for males. The investigation showed that the asymmetry between survival levels in the contributory age range (18–64 years) and in the benefit-receipt age range (65 years and older) is the underlying mechanism. When the comparative table projects higher survival at contributory ages than at retirement ages, the increase in the present value of contributions exceeds the increase in the present value of benefits, yielding a mathematical provision lower than that of the reference table. To support prior diagnosis, the index IF is proposed, which quantifies the differential in survival rates weighted by the age structure of the insured population. It is concluded that the criterion of Article 36, by relying exclusively on life expectancy at the mean age as a comparative parameter, may be insufficient to guarantee that the adopted mortality table produces a mathematical provision equal to or greater than that of the reference table across all possible demographic configurations.