Os reflexos dos benefícios por incapacidade decorrentes de transtornos mentais e comportamentais no Regime Geral de Previdência Social

Abstract

This study analyzes the effects of evolution in the granting of disability benefits arising from Mental and Behavioral Disorders (MBDs) within the scope of the General Social Security Regime (RGPS), focusing on their historical trajectory, classification by benefit type, and economic repercussions. A quantitative and descriptive approach was adopted, based on bibliographic and documentary research, using administrative data extracted from the Statistical Yearbook of Social Security and the Open Data Portal of Social Security, covering the period from 2008 to 2024, in addition to the construction of prospective scenarios for the period from 2025 to 2030. The results showed that MBDs progressively increased their share in the total number of temporary disability benefits granted under the RGPS, assuming an increasingly relevant position both in the number of granted benefits and in the associated social security expenditure. The findings also revealed the predominance of ordinary social security benefits over occupational accident-related benefits, an increase in the average economic severity of benefits, and an expansion in the potential economic obligation linked to new grants. In the prospective field, the estimated scenarios for 2030 indicated values ranging from 288,332 to 571,140 benefits, with projected costs between R$ 736,530,380.61 and R$ 1,332,479,075.60, depending on the methodological approach adopted. It is concluded that disability benefits related to Mental and Behavioral Disorders are no longer a peripheral phenomenon and have become a relevant component of contemporary social security dynamics, requiring an integrated analysis of frequency, classification, cost, and temporal projection, with implications for understanding the economic sustainability of the RGPS.