Distribuição espacial das taxas de homicídios nas microrregiões nordestinas no período de 2011 a 2017

Abstract

The present work aims to study the spatial distribution of homicide rates in the northeastern micro-regions between the period 2011 to 2017 to make an analysis of the concentration or dispersion of these rates and ascertain whether there is spatial dependence between these micro-regions. For this study, the database of the Unified Health System was used through the Datasus platform for the years 2011 to 2017, using the statistical indicators: Homicide Rate per 100 thousand inhabitants and the Moran Index. The results of the study show that even with a gradual reduction in the number of crime, in addition to a concentration of this variable, especially in coastal areas, there is an evolution of homicide rates per 100 thousand inhabitants in the period studied, with the Northeast region having a of 47.44 in 2017, considered above what is acceptable by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which is 3.7. The Moran Index allowed an autocorrelation analysis between the micro-regions studied, even comparing them through local characteristics. Therefore, it was possible to conclude that there is a spatial dependence between these microregions analyzed, that is, that crime is correlated to the neighborhood effect and that the Northeast region showed a significant increase in this rate as of 2014. Therefore, according to with the results of the Moran Index, similar behaviors among the micro-regions studied are frequent.