Determinantes da dinâmica da inflação no Brasil: evidências empíricas robustas a problemas de identificação

Abstract

Considering inflation as a variable of great influence in the lives of economic agents, this paper sought to investigate the determinants of inflation by estimating the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) by Blanchard and Galí (2007). Therefore, was used a robust method for identification problems present in the model. Two periods of analysis were considered and, for each one, two specifications were estimated: one considering rational expectations for inflation and the other using direct measures of inflation expected by the market. Thus, it was observed that the unemployment rate and the supply shock were relevant to explain inflation only in the first period of analysis. Besides that, with regard to the structural parameters of NKPC, it was verified in all the analyzes that a huge proportion of the firms don’t adjust their prices in a given month. The estimates of the salary rigidity index used vary in the different estimates.