Influência dos ciclos políticos eleitorais no índice de gasto com pessoal nas capitais brasileiras

Abstract

The Theory of Political Cycles admits that there may be discretionary behaviors on the part of managers during election periods in economic policies. In this sense, the present study aims to examine the influence of political cycles on the personnel expenditure index. To this end, personnel expenses incurred between 2015 and 2023 in the 26 capitals of Brazil were analyzed, totaling a data panel with 234 observations. The relationship between electoral cycles and Personnel Expenditure was evaluated using descriptive statistics and measured by regression with panel data. The results of the survey show evidence that Brazilian capitals increase their personnel expenses during municipal elections. Therefore, evidence of the existence of political cycles in the capitals of Brazil was found. Understanding the reactions of governments to election periods is of paramount importance, as the analysis of behavior patterns linked to electoral cycles helps to broaden the understanding of electoral dynamics in Brazil.