Endividamento familiar no Brasil: uma análise entre renda, consumo e crédito no período de 2012 a 2023

Abstract

Brazil has one of the largest consumer markets in the world; however, the high level of household debt is a significant concern. This objective of this study is to analyze the impact of income, credit, and consumption on household debt in Brazil from 2012 to 2023. Using a linear regression model, estimated via Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), the research is based on data collected from the Central Bank of Brazil, the Consumer Debt and Default Survey (PEIC), and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The dependent variable is the level of household debt, and the explanatory variables include, in addition to income, credit supply, and aggregate consumption, controls such as the unemployment rate and the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA). Specifications including lagged debt were tested. The results revealed that debt is strongly influenced by previous behavior, especially with regard to past debt, credit supply, and disposable income. Keywords: debt; default; households; credit; income;