O Brasil nas COPs: uma análise de conteúdo das temáticas expostas pela diplomacia brasileira entre as 21a e 29a edições da COP

Abstract

This study analyzes the frequency and distribution of themes presented in the official speeches of the Brazilian delegations between the 21st and 29th editions of the Conferences of the Parties (COP), the supreme body of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It seeks to identify possible continuities and changes over this period. Based on Bardin’s content analysis methodology, as systematized by Lycarião and Sampaio, the study’s corpus consists of official documents delivered by Brazilian delegations during the COP high-level segment, which includes only heads of state. The research also aims to calculate the relative and absolute frequencies of themes, map the main topics, and compare them over time and across different administrations, identifying key shifts or continuities. The results highlight the influence of governmental transitions on Brazilian diplomatic action, revealing oscillations between periods of stronger alignment with multilateralism and climate governance — such as during the signing of the Paris Agreement and the environmentalist revival under Lula’s third term — and phases of retraction and omission, particularly under the Bolsonaro administration. The analysis provides insight into how Brazilian diplomacy, throughout the analyzed decade, sought to reaffirm the country’s role on the international stage and position itself as a leader within the International Climate Change Regime, paving the way toward COP 30, to be held in Belém in December 2025.